On Saturday, November 22, 2025, Fulham FC will host Sunderland AFC at Craven Cottage in London, in what could be one of the most surprising results of Premier League Matchweek 12. Fulham, reeling from four losses in their last five games, are fighting to escape the relegation zone. Sunderland, in their first season back in the top flight since 2017, are flying high — unbeaten in four, and sitting comfortably in the top four. The twist? Despite Fulham’s dismal form, bookmakers still list them as favorites. Here’s the thing: home advantage doesn’t always mean victory — especially when the home team looks more like a team in crisis.
Home Ground, Hollow Confidence
Fulham’s record at Craven Cottage is the only glimmer of hope in an otherwise bleak run. Their 50% home win rate sounds decent — until you realize they’ve won just one of their last five home matches. Their overall points per game average of 0.80 is among the worst in the league. They’ve scored just seven goals in their last five league outings. And now, they’re without Sasa Lukic, their steady Serbian midfielder, suspended after a reckless red card against Everton. To make matters worse, Rodrigo Muniz, their most dangerous striker, is sidelined until January with a hamstring tear suffered during the international break. WhoScored’s data confirms he’s been their most consistent finisher — without him, Fulham’s attack looks toothless.Joshua King, the Norwegian veteran, is expected to start up front. He’s not a natural number nine, but he’s the only option left. His pace and work rate might stretch Sunderland’s defense, but can he score? In his last 12 Premier League starts, he’s netted just once. And with Antonee Robinson still recovering from a groin strain, Fulham’s left flank is a liability. Their defense has conceded 11 goals in their last five games. This isn’t just poor form — it’s systemic.
Sunderland: The Unlikely Contenders
Meanwhile, Sunderland AFC are doing something few expected: thriving in the Premier League. Their five-game form — LWWDD — looks messy on paper, but the results tell a different story. They’ve earned 1.60 points per game, the same as Arsenal and Manchester United. Their 1-1 draw with league leaders Arsenal FC just before the international break wasn’t a fluke — it was a statement. They didn’t just hold Arsenal; they controlled large portions of the match, pressed intelligently, and forced errors.Manager Tony Mowbray has built a side built on discipline, counter-pressing, and clinical finishing. Their midfield trio of Elliot Embleton, Jack Clarke, and Kieran Dowell has been the engine. Clarke, in particular, has been electric — three goals and two assists in his last four games. And while they’re not the flashiest team, they’re the most efficient. Their away record? 1.50 points per game. That’s better than Liverpool, Chelsea, and Tottenham. They don’t need to dominate possession. They just need to survive the first 20 minutes, then strike.
The Numbers Don’t Lie — But They Don’t Tell the Whole Story
The head-to-head history is a mirror: 20 meetings, 6 wins apiece, 8 draws. It’s a stalemate. But that was the old Premier League — when Sunderland were mid-table regulars and Fulham were battling to avoid relegation. This time, the roles are reversed. Fulham, once a mid-table side with European ambitions, are now the ones clinging on. Sunderland, a club that spent five seasons in the Championship, are playing like they belong.Forebet’s algorithm gives Sunderland a 36% chance of winning — higher than their win probability against any other team this season. Football Predictions’ 1-1 draw forecast feels almost conservative. Why? Because Fulham’s home record, while better than their away form, is still unreliable. They’ve drawn three of their last five at Craven Cottage — and none of those draws were against top-four sides. Sunderland, meanwhile, have drawn four of their last five away games — and won two of them.
And here’s the quiet factor: crowd energy. Craven Cottage will be loud — but not because fans believe. It’ll be because they’re desperate. Sunderland’s fans, by contrast, are buzzing. They’ve waited 15 years for this. The club’s official headquarters in Sunderland, Tyne and Wear has seen a 40% surge in season ticket sales since promotion. This isn’t just a match — it’s a cultural moment.
What’s at Stake
A win for Sunderland would put them in the top three — their highest league position since 2013. It would also be their first league win over Fulham since 2012. For Fulham, a loss would drop them to 18th, five points from safety. With six of their next eight games away from home, this is their last real chance to build momentum.And let’s not forget the context: this is the first Premier League meeting between the two since the 2013-14 season. Back then, Sunderland finished 15th. Fulham finished 11th. Now? The opposite. The league has changed. The players have changed. The expectations have changed.
What’s Next?
If Sunderland take all three points, expect their name to appear in Champions League conversations — even if only in the media. If Fulham draw or lose, manager Marco Silva will face renewed pressure. The club’s board has already quietly begun scouting a replacement. Meanwhile, Sunderland’s owner, Stewart Donald, is reportedly considering a new training complex in the north east — a sign he believes this isn’t a flash in the pan.One thing’s certain: Saturday won’t just be about points. It’ll be about identity. For Fulham, it’s about survival. For Sunderland, it’s about arrival.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Fulham still favored despite their poor form?
Bookmakers favor Fulham because of home advantage and squad depth. Even in decline, Fulham’s average player wage is nearly 40% higher than Sunderland’s, and they’ve historically performed better at Craven Cottage. Their 2024-25 home record was the 7th best in the league — a legacy that still influences odds, even when current form contradicts it.
How has Sunderland managed to stay unbeaten in four matches?
Sunderland’s success comes from disciplined defending and rapid transitions. They’ve conceded just two goals in their last four games, and their counter-attacks have produced 7 goals. Manager Tony Mowbray uses a 4-2-3-1 formation that allows them to absorb pressure and exploit space behind fullbacks — a tactic that’s worked well against teams like Arsenal and Newcastle.
What impact does Rodrigo Muniz’s absence have on Fulham’s chances?
Muniz has scored 6 of Fulham’s 18 league goals this season — nearly a third. Without him, Fulham’s expected goals (xG) per game drops from 1.4 to 0.8. Joshua King and Heung-Min Son are capable, but neither is a natural finisher. The team lacks a focal point in the box, making them predictable and easier to defend against.
Is this Sunderland’s first time in the Premier League since 2017?
No — they were promoted in 2022 but were immediately relegated after one season. This is their second return in three years. Their 2025 promotion came via the Championship playoffs, beating Huddersfield in the final. Their current squad includes 12 players who were part of that playoff run, giving them cohesion rare for a newly promoted side.
What’s the historical significance of this match for both clubs?
This is the first Premier League meeting since 2014, when Sunderland won 2-1 at Craven Cottage. Since then, Fulham have won two FA Cup ties against Sunderland, but never in league play. For Sunderland, a win here would be their first league victory over Fulham in over a decade — a symbolic breakthrough for a club rebuilding its identity.
How does this match affect the relegation battle?
A Fulham loss would drop them to 18th, level on points with 17th-place Nottingham Forest and just three points above 19th-place Burnley. With six away games in their next eight, they’d need a miracle to recover. Sunderland, meanwhile, would move to 4th — a position that would trigger UEFA Europa Conference League qualification talks, even in January.